10 Predictions for the Year
Some interesting predictions for content revenue, no.2 particularly caught my eye in light of Googles recent moves with Scholar and Library - it's clear as day when you read it but i'd certainly not given it much thought so i think some of you will find it interesting aswell:
To achieve much broader penetration, the information industry needs to change the process by which people find and buy the information they need. Two conditions are necessary and both will start to take hold in earnest this year. First, premium content will become discoverable though the major search engines. In seeking information, users often do not know the likely sources and therefore rely on search engines. While search engines are relatively effective in finding relevant content on the free web, they have as yet little content indexed from premium collections. As a result, search engines currently do not find relevant articles from The New York Times archive, Thomson’s Investext library of Wall Street research reports, Hoover’s company reports, or reports from market research firms, among other premium sources. An important example of change, however, is Google’s plan to index content from hundreds of academic journal publishers (with their permission). This move will enable users to discover content that previously was not visible to search engines. The second condition for broadening content sales is the packaging of information for pay-per-view purchasing as an alternative to subscriptions, so that users can purchase content once they find it. Pay-per-view packaging is not new. A variety of publishers and distributors, ranging from The New York Times to Factiva to Forrester Research, have been selling content “by the drink” as a complement to subscriptions. Now, however, the combination of discovery and pay-per-view packaging will set the stage for a much larger content market.
There's much more at the threadlinked post above so check it out.
Motorola set for Linux smartphone barage in 2005
The Linux Smartphone is, by the look of it, about to happen in a large way - Motorola have just announced thier intention to put out 8-10 linux Smartphones this year - although no linux based phones are available in the US right now, it's sure to follow as the light slowly dawns that linux = cheap and linux = good
According to the DigiTimes, Linux smartphones already account for more than 10 percent of Motorola's sales in China. China is the world's largest market for mobile phones, and Motorola is a top mobile phone vendor there.
Motorola Linux smartphones available in China today include the E680, A768i, and A780. Jim Ready, the CEO of MontaVista, which supplies the Linux-based OS used in smartphones from Motorola, NEC, and Panasonic, said in an interview in May, "[Motorola's] ability to pop out three phones based on the same OS is making people in the industry say 'Oh sh*t, how'd they do that?'"
Nice. Being a linux enthusiast it warms my cold black heart to think that by the time i get round to actually getting some kind of decent phone i might be able to get a decent OS on it heh..
So you have prooved to your merchant or affiliate company that you can deliver the goods and sales, what do you do now:
Forget it and move onto the next project
Give the affiliate manager grief and tell him if he doesn't pay you more then he get go and jump
Plead for more money
Ask the aff manager what he would be prepared to do if you could do more volume.
I knwo most affiliates just move on to the next project, but is that the right way?
Google Completes Definition Move To Answers.com
SEW reports that Google have moved to using Answers.com for their definitions - the links you find for your keywords at the very top of the page after querying.
This is cool. Yesterday i posted about Answers.com and expressed a wish to see a tab or some kind of integration into a major SE - now i have it! Danny S had reported previously on this but i missed it, sometimes the headlines fly by to quickly to catch everything on any given day...
Im going to enjoy having that on Google, i only used Answers.com for the first time yesterday and was much impressed :)
Searchday reports on AlmondNet's new behavioral ad network that tracks search queries users have made across pretty much anything, including Google and the other major SE's.
The "Post-Search" service gathers data on what people search for through partnerships it has established with web sites and ISPs. It then shows web surfers targeted ads if they visit sites taking part in its Post-Search advertising network.
ISPs, in particular, are how the company will know what people may be searching on at places like Google, where it doesn't have a data gathering partnership. The ISP sees all the traffic going between its customers and search engines, making that data trackable.
Now, i know i won't be the only one that's not happy at the thought of some company building a database of my search preferences - but what really, really worries me is that clearly some ISP's think it's perfectly ok to sell that data to AlmondNet - My data.
Apart from the general creepiness - what if you work in an open office and have in the past searched for "big boy rubber <imagine the rest>" and suddenly your screen, tuned to a nice work related pages is showing ads you would rather not be associated with publically? - it doesn't bear thinking about heh...
So, the issues here for me are:
This is "icky" and invasive
Is my ISP selling my data, and how can i find out?
How profitable is this going to be? (well, everyone has his price heh..)
LookSmart Details What Went Wrong
..and clickz give them a platform to do it on.
Search engine marketing firm LookSmart blamed its disappointing fourth-quarter results on its failure to pursue advertisers for keyword categories that generated high query volumes.
LookSmart reported a loss of $1.5 million for the quarter, on revenues of $16.5 million. Both figures kept with revised guidance the company issued earlier this month.
"Our sales effort wasn't deep enough or effective enough," said CEO Dave Hills, speaking on the company's conference call announcing earnings. "We didn't focus on the categories that would drive the business forward."
This was due to a failure to track query volume in a detailed enough manner, said Hills. As a result, the sales staff wasn't aware of categories with underutilized inventory.
Blog Overkill - The danger of hyping a good thing into the ground.
Well, im happy at least, half the blogosphincter want his blood for pointing out the patently obvious but it's made my day to see that someone actually sees through all the ridiculous hype and ego preening nonsense about blogs out there.
Dont get me wrong, i do think blogs are important, it's just that they are NOT going to overthrow regular media and they are NOT going to give "power to the people" in the ways that some self aggrandizing, preening peacocks think they will.
I's an amazing read if you've been following the citizen journalism marlarky, the post is based on the recent blogging and journalism credibility conference.
In language only slightly less fervent than Shamberg's, conference participants declared blogs the destroyers of mainstream media. (See this page and this page for a real-time transcription of the conference.) Others prescribed blogs as the medicine the newspaper industry should take to reclaim its lost readers: Publishers should support reader blogs and encourage their reporters to blog in addition to writing stories. Podcasts would undermine the radio network empires. "Open source" journalism, in which readers and bloggers help set the news agenda for newspapers, was promoted as a tonic for what ails the press. Reporters were encouraged to regain the lost trust of readers by blogging drafts of their stories, their notes, and even their taped interviews so other bloggers could dissect and analyze them for fairness.
Winer discounted any chance that the clueless media would adapt to the blogofuture, saying publishers were as blind as the mainframe computer manufacturers of early 1980s who refused to believe PCs would replace their big iron.
Tagging the Internet
Earlier this week i wrote a "folksonomies 101": Tags & Folksonomies - What they are and why should you care? - now the WSJ have picked up on this fast moving trend in grass roots classification. Jermemy Wagstaff again uses Flickr and del.icio.us as examples - he has too, there's not much else out there right now, but i did list a few more in above linked post.
Now, all this remains small-scale, and fragile. First off, how can we be sure everyone is adding the same tags to things -- marzipan, and not almond paste, say? Second: This is just two Web sites, a tiny fraction of the whole Web. True, but this is just the beginning. This month, a search engine called Technorati started using tags from Flickr and del.icio.us to categorize the millions of blogs, or online journals, that it indexes. That turns Technorati into a kind of homepage of every conceivable topic you can imagine people writing about: Check out, for example, its Web page on the notebooks I wrote about in the "Loose Wire" column a few weeks back, at www.technorati.com/tag/moleskine.
Most important, this social tagging thing, if it takes off, could make finding information much easier. Instead of relying on search engines, we can rely on other surfers submitting interesting sites as they find them. A bit like having some seriously fast, smart speed-readers running around the Internet on our behalf armed with piles of index cards.
Some things I know about moderating conversations in virtual space:
Nothing winds me up more than bad moderation - Here's a list of tips from Teresa Nielsen Hayden - some are obvious, some not so, but all in all, it's an interesting read if you run a community or participate in one.
Here's my favorite:
There can be no ongoing discourse without some degree of moderation, if only to kill off the hardcore trolls. It takes rather more moderation than that to create a complex, nuanced, civil discourse. If you want that to happen, you have to give of yourself. Providing the space but not tending the conversation is like expecting that your front yard will automatically turn itself into a garden.
Can Anyone add to that?
I'd love to see an extended list - maybe she'll write one after seeing how popular this effort was - one of the obvious things to build on would be handling moderators - who moderates the moderators? heh..
Seriously, i've met some diabolical moderators in my time doing any number of the following:
Glory seeking - only turning up in the forum when thiers some glory to be had
Being their in name only - starting a community out with pre-appointed mods is a bad idea imo, promote from your regulars - those that show an active interest and participate regularly coupled with subject expertise and social skills, not those you think *might* work out. This also applies to those that pitch/audition for the gig but then slack off when they get it..
Power Seekers - backstabbing and gossiping for personal gain - kicking down members and other mods to get closer to the top
Public floggings - dressing down a member in public - never a good idea, the occasional in-thread note to all, sure but humiliating a member?
That list could go on and on, as could the list of problem areas that members and owners of forums and other types of communities can cause.
I posted on embedding skype into mobile earlier today, now thanks to slashdot i find techworld have the scoop details released by BT on the fabled "bluephone" - BT's infamous WiFi roaming handset:
How does Bluephone work?
The original idea for Bluephone was to have a normal cellphone which can send calls via a special Bluetooth base station when inside the house or office. BT chose Bluetooth for the job, because it supports cordless telephony, is less power-hungry than Wi-Fi, and is almost universally available in mobile phones.
Bluephone is a consumer service, and BT intends to deliver it on absolutely standard cellphones.
However, since the project was announced, Wi-Fi has been moving fast, and BT can see which way the wind is blowing. "In 2006, when Wi-Fi makes its way into standard mid-range phones, we will have a Wi-Fi version," says Ryan Jarvis, director of mobile products and partnerships at BT. Future versions will use WiMax, he says.
But, even when the Wi-Fi version arrives, this will not be the converged Wi-Fi/cell phone that we have been waiting for, because it will not do voice over IP, and it will not be a SIP phone.
Bluephone calls use the GSM network. When they transfer a call to use the Bluetooth link, they just transfer the first few yards of that call. The call stays under the control of the GSM network. All indications are that it will still be priced as a mobile call: Jarvis would not be drawn on pricing, but offered the possibility of "a discount" for calls using Bluephone.
After much talk about the new Adwords API the the Beta is Finally available to the public! - What, another Beta i hear you cry? Surely not...
Just got the email:
Here's a list of the better coverage out there:
Google BLog Official Announcement
Goodman on the Effects of the API
Andy Beal - Good detailed write up
Official Adwords API Blog
Official Adwords API Forum - What, no wmw one already? heh..
Pamela Parker for Clickz
Thanks Jake for letting me butcher his original post :-)
Handling several million queries a month for O2, T-Mobile and Orange, Motionbridge have now launched a PPC service.
As james at MoCoNews notes, there is no information available (that i can find) on how paid listing will be identified to users but it's certainly an interesting step regardless of a serious lack of details heh..
Added: Danny S reported on this today and he managed to find a press release i'd missed...
Report: Local Online Ad Spend to Rise 46 Percent in '05
Local is a hot topic right now, we have ongoing discussions on Amazon A9's new Visual Yellow Pages and the State of Local Search and now we see clicz reporting on a study that says online local ad spend will grow 46% in 2005
Spending on local online advertising will total approximately $3.9 billion in 2005, a 46 percent increase over the $2.7 billion 2004 total, according to research conducted by Borrell Associates on 210 U.S. media markets.
Those growth figures are roughly double what researchers expected to measure for online local in 2005, said Gordon Borrell, president and chief executive of the Portsmouth, Virginia-based company. (The company measured a 28.7 percent increase in local ad spending online in 2004.)
"We've always viewed local advertisers as fairly conservative in that they don't have that much to spend," Borrell said. "Typically you expect them to funnel most of their ad spend into direct mail and yellow pages, with only a small percentage for online, but that is not the case at all this year. Local advertisers have started rushing toward this. Here they come."
Jupiter big dog Alan Meckler says that Answers.com or something like it could be the next big innovation in search:
Just as Google came out of nowhere to trump Yahoo as the first place for search, I have to wonder if Answers.com or something like it is not about to become the next big thing. To quote Mossberg: "Answers.com is also a start toward a new search paradigm where the object is to provide real instant information , not just links to pages where the information may, or may not, be found. I urge you to try it."
I don't think it will trump anything, but i could see it, and would like to see it as a tab on Yahoo or Google - I've not used it before but tried a search on my favorite author and i love it!
Wouldn't that be cool as an add on to your favorite regular search engine?
Facinating piece at the Social Issues Research Center that argues that the humble mobile phone is restoring a need for social grooming that has been lost within modern society and it's fragmented social systems.
Mobile gossip is good for us
Gossip is the human equivalent of 'social grooming' among primates, which has been shown to stimulate production of endorphins, relieving stress and boosting the immune system. Two-thirds of all human conversation is gossip, because this 'vocal grooming' is essential to our social, psychological and physical well-being. Mobiles facilitate gossip. Mobiles have increased and enhanced this vital therapeutic activity, by allowing us to gossip 'anytime, anyplace, anywhere' and to text as well as talk. Mobile gossip is an effective and important new stress-buster.
Mobile phones are the new garden fence
The space-age technology of mobile phones has allowed us to return to the more natural and humane communication patterns of pre-industrial society, when we lived in small, stable communities, and enjoyed frequent 'grooming talk' with a tightly integrated social network. In the fast-paced modern world, we had become severely restricted in both the quantity and quality of communication with our social network. Mobile gossip restores our sense of connection and community, and provides an antidote to the pressures and alienation of modern life. Mobiles are a 'social lifeline' in a fragmented and isolating world.
It's a lengthy read, and im a slow reader but im about half way through it and can tell you that as with howard at smartmobs i think it's hardly a definitive work but it's an absolute eye opener for sure and well worth the read...
Now, clearly the results of this survey are based on search geeks not joe regular - but TW member xcandyman has graciously allowed us to "throw it to the wolves" - the TW members can be rough critics on occasion so he's a brave chap :)