MySpace may be worth $15 billion

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SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - MySpace, the social networking Web site, could be worth around $15 billion.

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uhh... 15 Billion?

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I've tested advertising there.

I've tested advertising there. Trust me. It isn't worth diddly.

And in other news...

...one of the hairs from my armpit went for $200k recently. In 3 years it should be worth 15 times that!

15 Billion?...yeah

15 Billion?...yeah right

well if thats the case maybe Rupert Murdoch would like to invest in a couple more servers to speed up the serving of a page seeing as the current waiting time for a page to load exceeds 1 minute

It is a bogus claim to make

It is a bogus claim to make the claimsmaker sound authoritative, original, daring, and pressworth...unfortunately it also makes them sound like they are full of shit.

As far as MySpace goes, ...

Does that fucking Myspace

Does that fucking Myspace chat work yet? Do they really keep that site so crap on purpose?

Announcing my new site, MyBots

I'm figuring MySpace is about 50% bots, with maybe a tenth of those run by folks from here alone, so I'm going for $7.5 billion by starting a site aimed directly at the bots portion of the MySpace traffic.

It's going to be at MyBots.org as soon as I get around to registering the domain.

You will all be invited to send your bots there, signing up million of robot friends for them.

To add some human interaction, I will cut deals to have it featured as the home page in internet cafes in remote third world locations. We are also looking at some kindergarten deals to catch the new generation of consumers before they become jaded with other internet sites. We like to think of it as the first Web 3.0 concept.

I figure with that mix of desirable human demographics and sheer impressive numbers, I will become rich, rich, rich . . .

$15 Billion

Bubblebubblebubblebubblebubblesuckerssuckerssuckerssuckers... *breathe* ...Bubblebubblebubblebubble... heh

The report

I saw the internal report from RBC - here is how they laid out myspace's business strategy:

Business Strategy

MySpace is looking to generate revenues via monetization in four categories:

Branded Display: MySpace will be looking to work with Fortune 1000 advertisers to show display ads.

Performance: FIM acquired this business with Intermix. It focuses on performance-based deals with direct response marketers

Search with Google

e-Commerce: An example of a commerce initiative is a deal with snocap.com, which allows musicians to sell music on MySpace. Another example is Direct to Drive, which offers video downloads of popular Fox programs.

from the horse's mouth

earlier this month Rupert also told investors that additional revenue sources would include direct sales of TV shows (allowing him to keep a bigger chunk of the revenue than if sold through iTunes):

Fox said it would sell pics and hit shows like "24" and "Prison Break" on the site

and also mentioned marketing dollars from big movie studios:

Hollywood marketing was also tabbed as a big source of coin for the site... Studios that want prominent placement as a way of building up a pic's all-important "friend" count can spend as much as half a million dollars or more on a MySpace campaign

how important a movie's "friend" count is to its ultimate success is debatable. but this report is from Variety - which means a hollywood rag interpreting the words of a wizened old schemer who's trying to inflate an asset's value to investors. thar be bollocks, so take with the appropriate grain of salt.

well

I bet if you are advertising new clothing to 18 year old girls, it might be worth it. lol

On a recent flight out of

On a recent flight out of Seattle a "boy" sat next to me and plugged in his Mac notebook. He was about 27 or so, but dressed and acted like 16. He wore an ensemble of pre-destroyed denim and colored cotton, perfectly arranged to match a magazine advertisement. His hair and nails were almost perfect -- at least enough to have caused me to notice. He carried a Timbuktu messenger bag - not new, not a smudge nor scratch upon it. There were labels everywhere - A/X, A&F, etc. He was very quiet and very polite, yet oddly attentive to what went on around him. Almost skittish about whatching who watched him, yet otherwise extremely calm and reserved.

My spidey senses said he's extremely self conscious, and his awareness was to see who might be watching him. The eyes gave away he was probably not cruising the lounge, although I did wonder about that some until we had some conversation.

What was he doing on his Mac? MySpace email and adjustments to his My Space page. Emails include a photo of the sender... each one was posed and similarly glam...far more like Hollywood than Tech World. It turns out he was nobody special.. just a guy working a job in Seattle and on his way to Denver for a wedding. he put a TON of care into almost everything he did.

This guy spent everything he had on top-brand, latest fashion "gear". This is the MTV generation, never growed up. If Murdoch can show he steers the spend of a large number of these people, he may indeed have quite a goldmine on his hands.

peaked

MySpace is at its peak. Whatever it is worth now, it will be falling in the next year. The kiddies are moving on.

TV Show or Cable Channel?

Here's the question - is MySpace like a hit TV show, with a lifespan of a decade or less, or is it more like a cable channel such as MTV, with a lifespan of at least several decades?

If it's like a TV show, the end is in sight. If it's a cable channel, it can just keep on reinventing itself.

Either way, it has more legs to it than Facebook. Once the elite college membership gets diluted by the hoi polloi and old farts, it's over for Facebook.

How do they figure this?

How do they figure this? How do they put a monetary figure on this site?

stirs pot

Only $15? I'd say it's gotta be worth at LEAST $20 billion. I would say every REAL registered user MUST be worth at LEAST $1,000 or so to feed them a glimpse of a flashing ad for another dating site that charges $19.95 per month:)

>>MySpace is at its

>>MySpace is at its peak.

agreed. fred wilson has called myspace the AOL of tomorrow, which i think is 100% accurate.

>>how do they figure

>>how do they figure this?

pete cashmore:

So how did Rohan arrive at the figure? Apparently he looked at the rumored $1 billion Yahoo-Facebook talks (no purchase yet) and the $1.5 billion valuation for YouTube (this number is also baseless), then extrapolated. He also factored in Google’s $120 billion market cap, and looked at how MySpace could monetize its audience - direct response marketing, ecommerce and high-price advertising. Whether or not the prediction turns out to be true, most people would agree that this kind of comparative math is fuzzy at best, and a stab in the dark at worst - nobody is buying YouTube for $1.5 billion, for instance.

hmmmm

I'm new here, expressing a slightly contrary opinion to boot! I did not realize that Jordan Rohan was the one behind this. And I did not read his report. However, he has a certain amount of credibility on the street. My thought is that the key to all this is can Myspace keep their audience and evolve. If they can, and slowly monetize, then his analysis might be not that crazy. All the negatives are well known. All he is doing is looking at the bull case. The users are there, and the advertisers go where the users are-- they have to. If there are people at Fox serious about building the product, and they work at developing relationships with advertisers- interesting things could happen. I'm not saying it is likely, I really don't know, but I take his analysis seriously, because I take him seriously.

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