Facebook Helping to Bring Back the Bubble

Facebook apparently has turned down a buyout offer for $750 million, and is seeking $2 billion as well. Erick Schonfeld breaks down the math:

At 7 million members, that values each college-loan-saddled college student who uses the Facebook at $285. Excuse me? Now, even accounting for future growth of 10X or even 100X members (forget for a second that there aren't that many college students in the country), and it's still hard to swallow. I don't care if the Facebook is now the seventh most heavily trafficked site on the Web. By that calculation, MySpace on its own would be worth $10.7 billion, based on its estimated 37 million unique users.

As Nick Carr pointed out , the web 2.0 hype has been largely void of big investments, and hence a bubble hasn't emerged. Are we seeing a turning point towards what could mark the advent of the next bubble?

- Y! MyWeb

Its a PR Game

They are just testing the waters and its sad that businessweek fell for this!


I believe the bubble is

I believe the bubble is already here just not quite the way this thread is thinking. It is not an internet bubble or even a technology bubble. It is an advertisinhg bubble.

Community based marketing is the future! Never before in the history of mankind has there been such a fast, easy and cheap way to perform product placement directly in front of demographically targeted eyeballs. AND the bubble is also being fueled not just by demographically targeted eyeballs but FUTURE demographically targeted eyeballs.

The 9 year old today will be carrying a visa card, (or number on his forehead), in less than 10 years. Start showing him how cool it is that all his online "friends" wears Nike and what do you think he'll be buying from the Foot Locker at 19?

How much money in make up, hair styles, clothes, kitchen gadgets, jewelry and even cars, has Barbie sold over the last 40 years? Well, now Barbie.com has put that marketing machine on steroids.

The same goes for AARP, Democrats, Catholics, Atheists, Scientoloists, programmers, gamers, football fans, and on and on. Each of those terms represent demographics and spendable income. You think Nike, Ford, General Electric and even Al-Quieda, don't want that??

We all had to have pretty much known that Adwords was not the future of online advertising. It was just a quick fix. A grab for some quick money because that was what we could do NOW, and there is no question PPC is a pretty good way to sell stocks for far more than they are actually worth but that a bubble does not make. It will always have it place but have you really taken a good look at Adsense and Adwords? Is that really what Nike wants to spend their money on to create an image and a brand?

As far as bubbles, the new internet bazillionaires are going to keep being the myspace, facebooks, threadwatch guys who know how to build a community and know how to market to it.

Keep in mind I could be completely wrong. That would be ok too. BUT, that's where I'm putting my time and money now.


i still have a tough time

i still have a tough time thinking that facebook or any of the other social networks i've seen be worth as much as they are touted at. they all seem to be more about fashion than function -- will the facebook crowd still find facebook interesting in 10 years? or is facebook just a friendster waiting to happen?

IMO these communities/social networks need to start adding value in some way, maybe even by serving as platforms for running a business or storing content. put another way they need to compete with google more.


>IMO these

IMO these communities/social networks need to start adding value in some way,<

I couldn't agree more. I'd be curious to know what you see as a value proposition in a community or social network for any specific demographic. If it needs be more than just a place that like minded individuals find validation, I'd love to hear what others think those things may be.


what i really want to see is

what i really want to see is a professional social network that serves as a platform for service-based businesses (not so much retailers like walmart, amzn, etc.). take, for instance, SEO: a social network that helps you build your seo business. key aspects of this might include:

-- services SEOs need (tools, info, insurance for malpractice, etc)
-- obvious networking opportunities, both with other SEOs and other web professionals in general (web hosts, designers, engineers, etc.)
-- a platform for them to prove their knowledge and build credibility -- this is a HUGE barrier in online services, and i dont think an automated solution can adequately quantify something as abstract and personal as true trust, which is why i think social networks could be the answer to this problem.

ultimately i think social networks can serve as platforms, and can profit from being the market maker (aka intermediary) between transactions. i think they can help bring the market for services online, something i think any automated solution will have a lot of trouble tackling (for now, at least).


See Just That

I'd be curious to know what you see as a value proposition in a community or social network for any specific demographic. If it needs be more than just a place that like minded individuals find validation, I'd love to hear what others think those things may be.

Here's one I'm betting on in a huge way:

what i really want to see is a professional social network that serves as a platform for service-based businesses

... and anyone who wants to see something like what KidMercury said in the above quote should PM me. When we launch June 01, 2006 I'll sticky you a URL where you can see that in action. Otherwise, hopefully you'll hear about it soon enough ;-)

We're targeting an incredibly enthusiastic niche, one which relates to 1 in 6 americans (and many worldwide). We're giving the enthusiasts a huge amount of free social networking and entertainment tools, we're also actually driving retail sales (of something that the retailers currently have but can hardly sell) and we're driving local (service) business to them as well.

I'm pretty sure that we're the first Social Networking site that will be giving users tons of ways to virally promote themselves (both enthusiasts and professional members) outside of our site... but in ways that also will provide incredible SEO benefits to our site.


IMO these communities/social

IMO these communities/social networks need to start adding value in some way, maybe even by serving as platforms for running a business or storing content

I believe this is already happeneing, albeit not touching into big business - yet. Myspace, for example, has lent itself as a sales chanel for independent musicians, has driven sales of small clothing labels and as promotion tools for artists and authors.


Web2.0, networks and sharing

While I agree that social networking is the way of the future, I think we are only seeing the beginnings of some exciting uses of creating these micro communities. I am really excited by new developments such as social browsing (check out Firefox's QuickChat extension) and social network visualizations (see http://www.marumushi.com/apps/socialcircles/). Imagine the possibilites that big brands could leverage once they catch up.

And you know that it is only matter of time before they do--just as they did with blogging, chat rooms and forums. It is cool to see me-too web 2.0 find new ways to promote themselves as well, whether it is through Flickr, Barcamps or forums such as this.

I wrote an article about web2.0 on my blog and really in the end, my summation was that the strongest elements of web2.0 are nothing more than a new way of 'sharing'. Whether we charge for it or do it for free, we are creating possibilities of sharing content. It is all coming together and while we all secretly dread what 'bubble' implies, we have to believe that we are wiser this time around and will find the balance before the laws of economics makes us!


damn that massa

Just when things were going good he tells the world. Thankfully not everybody gets it.

Just to clarify and help everybody fully understand the important part of massa's post above, the future is all about building web2.0 apps..communities... and marketing to them as demographics (AdWords, PPC, etc). Go go go!

As for starting when they are young, I'll continue battling against that one. We are all entitled to our good causes.