Thoughts on Bubble2.0
Back in March I was talking about the new internet bubble. It's not like it was my idea/observation or anything, i was just reading knowledgeable folks on the subject, and found myself agreeing. If you've been following recent bubble like business moves here and around, you'll most likely enjoy Om Malik's 10 things about Web2.0 conference, and the followup, 5 more things about web2.0.
If you need further convincing that we're well and truly into BrownTrousersTime™ for VC's and startups, check out Mike's take on the AOL/Weblogs buyout
It seems like so much they do these days: a sudden kneejerk reaction to what seems hot, but with little strategic coherence. Either way, the deal isn't all that surprising when you consider the players and the relative hype around the space. What will be much more interesting, however, is the fallout -- and whether it suddenly means a lot of other blogs are overvalued as well.
WooHoo! My First Bubble!
I wasn't even online in 2000, i was far too busy selling outrageously expensive ads to boy ceo's with far to much money. Seriously, if it had .com at the end of the name, it was money in the bank. My old sales mgr told the team one day if they didnt pick their arses up he'd just give all the leads to Nick, and he'd ring 'em up and ask them how much they wanted to give away! hehe..
Henry's Back
One thing i've been wondering over the last 36hrs is why the fuck EVERYONE is making nasty, snarky comments about Henry Blodgett. Remember, i wasn't around at the time. He's just posted a personal note (his blog is brand spanking new by the way), that explains it all - if you're not familiar with the tale, or want to take a trip down memory lane, it's an insightful read...
Bubble Proofing
It's no secret that im involved in a couple of ventures outside of TW these days, and in one such endeavour, we've been putting a LOT of emphasis on bubble proofing our company. I won't bore you with all the details, but some thoughts are kind of obvious i guess:
- Spend time and money on the spec, and the resultant software so the sytem runs itself with minimal support staff
- Leave VC cash well alone if humanly possible
- Keep your core team small, tight, and connected
- Like Baden Powell said "be prepared".
What a fun time to be in this space eh?
to be fair
There is no comparison between AOL buying Weblogs Inc for $25 million and the last bubble. Sure, if it had been $200 million I'd be dancing the bubble tune myself, but in this case they've bought a profitable network which provides additional content as part of their portal strategy, its a decent buy really.
I was there the last time
I was there the last time around. I see a lot of stuff repeat itself.
One is the "web2 n00bs" - they generally just don't "get it". You see lots of these "Hey, we did something with Gmaps and Flickr, we're the elite" or "Hey, tag this and blog that - and have some AJAX on the side". People think that because they use some specific technology to do do something that's not really interesting by itself, then it's suddently all the rage. It's just the same as last time around.
Last time around I had one site. I just kept maintaining, building, tweaking, updating, and whatever it is you do. No advertising, no funding, no nothing, just focus on what I thought the users might need. Others launched similar sites, heavily marketed, using latest technologies and expensive designers. Burned cash like there was no tomorrow.
I still have that site. It's now the biggest of it's kind, and the most well known reference in that specific niche. The others are more or less dead and gone. Grown by word-of-mouth alone, imagine that. Unfortunately that site is simply not profitable. Funny thing is, I've already got my first Bubble 2.0 offer to buy it. I refused selling it, though.
Oh, it's a bit bubbly again.
Oh, it's a bit bubbly again. In fact, it's downright scary at some of the stuff being dredged back up with new names but no knowledge of past failures. But for some perspective, the Weblogs of 1999 -- About.com -- went for $690 million in 2000 to Primedia. Earlier this year, NYT paid $410 million, so even a decline :) Now that eBay-Skype thing....
If I got anything from the last one
You don't know anything for sure until you look back. These things have to be viewed in retrospect. One of the key differences for me personally is I don't see here the huge wasted ad spends (boo, I liked that aspect) or massive increases in programmer salaries (ditto!) :O) I see online ad spend increasing at the expense of traditional media, last time they were buying up superbowl ads for companies with no business plan. Anyone else seeing those things?
Another thing I think plays into this is investment patterns. People pulled out of stocks and created the property bubble. People are now looking back at stocks and need something to invest in.
I was workin' for the man in
I was workin' for the man in 1.0, I got headhunted a couple of times and was offered some crazy stupid money. Didn't take it because everybody had was all pony and no dog, and I was young and filled with the notion of corporate loyalty. We've still got a couple of big time deals left before everybody says hey WTF were we thinking? There are a lot of really cool 'one-ofs' and 'almosts' but once you really try to use it you realize it's not all there. They went 90% of the way and didn't finish the job, and everybody knows it's that last 10% that takes the most time/energy/effort/money/know how.
Gosh I hope the blogging bubble pops like yesterday, I'm awfully tired of hearing/reading "people's voices" or "people's cat's voices". I do however think the people who blog like journalists, news columns or trade magazines are on the right track. People want to know what's going on now, not wait a month, or a week, and in most cases TV is too passive and politically correct to get the job done.
worth a read. at least one vc...
...smells it
Web 2.0 Reactions
cite Jarvis (but your link out code is bad, Jeff)
There's a great thread at
There's a great thread at WebmasterWorld (Note: In Supporters Forum, sorry) too, in which Webwork raises more questions than a legion of philosophers can answer. Some of them quite deep, and not really abot "web 2.0", more about (technological) development and humankind in general. Worth a read and a thought or two, if you agree or not (even if you simply don't understand half of it).
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Oh, you're quite right rcjordan:
here's another VC on Bubble 2.0 - more
and another one
and a third (that was there during Bubble 1.0)
Bubble bubble, Google and trouble
Market capitalization for Time Warner: $84.54 billion
Market capitalization for Google: $87.40 billion
>here's another VC on Bubble
here's another VC on Bubble 2.0
I liked that guy ...almost as cynical as I am.