Can Jeeves Become a Major Player in Search?
Can Ask Jeeves become a Top Tier Engine?
Jupiters Gary Stein asks the obvious question in light of the recent aquisition by IAC: Can Ask Jeeves become a Top Tier Engine?There has been much talk lately, high profile talk, of the problems associated with link based algorithms such as PageRank, and Gary sums that up nicely with:
The problem with PageRank is not that it is scam-able. I imagine all systems are, in some way. The thing with PageRank is that the only way it works is if the entire community (meaning everyone with a Web site) suspends their self-interest. If no one tries to scam the sytem, it works. If you are concerned that any single player might be trying to scam the system, players will frequenly engage in scamming behavior, if only as defense mechanism (or, perhaps, rationalize the behavior as a defense mechanism). This is the Prisoner's Dilemma, over and over again. Pretty soon, you have a less-valuable system for everyone.
He goes on to talk about the underlying technology behind Jeeves: Teoma and what they call subject specific popularity that looks at communities of subjects and sites rather than the amount and weight of links as a whole into a website.
Is this the way forward? Become.com certainly think that link based algorithms are yesterdays news...
And putting all of that to one side, or assuming they're right, can ASK step up to the plate and deliver a Media Product to rival the big boys now they have IAC driving them?
One of the most reasonable things I've heard about the problem of PageRank for a while I think!
There has to be a sucessor to link popularity, another major step up in the classification and ranking of websites. I wouldn't complain if Ask were the ones to produce it. Can't say I've seen what the fuss about Teoma is though. Maybe it's the way I've learnt to search, but it never seems to offer me any more than the other SE's really. Can't say I've given it a thorough test though.
Amusing that the ads then shown below this article, for me at least, include one about needing links for SEO, and one about 'Pagerank for sale'. Hehe
How is Ask going to get market share?
The bottom line is : To be considered a top tier engine you need significant market share. Ask does not have a significant market share and nor do they offer some great feature that Google, Yahoo or MSN don't. So there is no big reason for users to switch over. I'd love to see Ask grow but I just doubt it.
This post has been scam-enabled
I have to admit that I'm somewhat amused at Gary Stein writing that the "problem with PageRank is not that it is scam-able" and then spends the rest of the paragraph complaining about how people scamming the system makes it less valuable.
At the same time, once you get past the vague corporate wording and fight your way past the buzzwords, you see that Teoma's Subject-Specific Popularity™ is still based around link popularity at its core, it merely adds a subject filter on top of the incoming links that scores the link based on what the engine believes is the "subject" of the linker page and linked page and how relevant they are.
This system can still be scammed, though. Link farm pages will evolve into subject specific collections in order to be "relevant" to the page they're linking to, something that many of them already do. Blog comment spam will be no less important because every competitor will be equally weighted down, keeping the scores as even as they are now.
And how does one correctly determine the "subject" of anything other than a very specific topic-based website anyway? I suspect that for every correctly identified subject-relevant link, you'll have thousands of not-so-relevant links that can still overpower through sheer numbers even when weighted down.
I guess I'm not seeing how Teoma's approach will be any less scammed if it becomes the popular choice for search engines.
I agree, if you gave Ask the same market share as Google plenty of people would find a way to scam it.
That is really it - you need about 5 - 7 engines all with roughly the same market share. That way no one engine is ruling, but at the same time no one engine is under the kind of pressure that Google is. Hopefully we are evolving back towards that.
i am a firm believer that every system can be scammed, some more easily than others. In terms of Ask's ability to gain the marketshare that would push it up to tier 1 i believe that it is doable. With the right advertising model hitting a relatively frustrated search demographic i can see them making moves.
MSN is in the middle of a HUGE advertising campaign
I do not see a noticebale increase in MSN users despite MSN spending big money promoting their new search engine. I think MSN has bigger pockets than ASK or IAC does.
sure, MSN is in the middle of a HUGE advertising campaign, but HUGE doesn't always correspond to effective. I'm not going to debate McCann Erickson's ability to get the word out for MSN, but i do know, that targeting the right audience with a smaller budget can be very effective. I don't think Ask needs to hit 90% of American households with advertising, they just need to hit the right households, with a unique message that would set themselves apart from the other 3 major engines. It's definatley been done before, look at all the cold medicines and painrelievers out there, they all do the same basic thing and use the same ingredients, we shouldn't underestimate the ability to manipulate the general public's opinion.
tiers
Regarding tiers i think we can all more or less agree that MSN, GOOG and YHOO is the first tier. The second tier, though - who else is there but Ask?
>who else is there but Ask?
I think that is fair claus. I cannot think of any other second tier engines. Below, that in third tier there is a lot of jockeying for position and I expect some companies to start shopping in that group soon.