Google Shares take a pounding

The Street reports a downgrading of Google and Yahoo shareswhich slid today after a top analyst downgraded the shares and lowered his price targets on both.

Quote:
RBC Capital Markets' Jordan Rohan cut his investment rating on the stocks to sector perform, saying channel checks show unexpected weakness in paid-search pricing. Rohan, who had previously rated Google a "top pick" and Yahoo! outperform, lowered his price target on Google to $200 from $250 and cut Yahoo!'s to $34 from $43.

Quote:
The $200 price target reflects a multiple of 20.2 times RBC's forward estimate of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $2.6 billion and 39.3 times its forward earnings estimate.

"We believe this level of valuation is defensible and reasonable in the long term," the brokerage wrote. "However, the loss of momentum in the category, coupled with high investor expectations after two quarters of blowout earnings, creates a situation where investors are likely to apply a higher discount rate to future cash flows of Google."

A similar argument informed the Yahoo! downgrade

Another report on Fox News

- Y! MyWeb

Business Week gives an explanation

now this Business Week article goes into more detail

Quote:
Rohan said in his report that Google had a robust fourth quarter due to stronger-than-expected paid advertising from the holiday shopping period.

Quote:
However, Rohan said pricing across Google and affiliates is down by double digits so far during the first quarter on a sequential basis. He believes it will be "difficult to make up in the last six weeks of the quarter" if the company wants to maintain growth from last period.

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Rohan believes investor expectations are too high for a company that has provided no guidance for the first quarter. He also expects slow volume during Easter, a shift in the way companies place advertising, and international markets to remain largely untested.

Quote:
he pointed out that Yahoo's business is quite different from Google's. Yahoo, the second-largest search engine, can rely on a more diverse business mix, and has already displayed a more stable earnings history than Google.

Whether you agree with him, or not, he holds big sway in the financial markets

His remarks on paid advertising being substantially down are interesting. Particularly in view of the squeals from AdSense publishers on reductions in income over the last four weeks.


Overvalued?

Absolutely. Google Inc. seems to be enjoying its own little investor dotcom boom - and bust seems inevitable. Market expectations seem very short-term.